Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
