It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the source of the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second to restore Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
