A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
